The 2026 World Baseball Classic is almost in the books.
The championship game between the United States and Venezuela will be held on Tuesday, March 17. The U.S. is looking for its first championship at the international baseball tournament since 2017. Venezuela would earn its first WBC championship if it wins and would be the fourth country to win the WBC, along with the U.S., Japan (three times), and the Dominican Republic.
Team USA was consistently called baseball's version of the Dream Team, and despite some narrow escapes in the tournament, the Americans still made it to the championship game. Their lone loss so far was to Team Italy in the pool play stage.
Venezuela has already achieved its best finish at the World Baseball Classic. Before 2026, Venezuela's best WBC performance was reaching the semifinals in 2009, but they were unable to reach the championship. Team Venezuela was in Group D along with the Dominican Republic, Israel, the Netherlands, and Nicaragua. Venezuela went 3‑1 in pool play and upset Japan and Italy in the playoffs, ahead of meeting the U.S. in the championship.
Here's a breakdown of the United States vs. Venezuela to close out the 2026 World Baseball Classic.
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USA vs. Venezuela betting odds
- Spread: TBA
- Over/under: TBA
- Moneyline: USA -280, Venezuela +220
All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
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USA vs. Venezuela pick, prediction
The matchup against Venezuela is a little more intimidating for Team USA than if Italy had won. Venezuela has a similar lineup, consisting of household names around the majors. The United States still has the edge in that category, as it would against nearly any team in the tournament, but Venezuela has a better lineup than people may realize.
Venezuela went into the fourth inning of its semifinal matchup against Italy trailing by two. While not a huge lead, Venezuela stuck to its game plan and battled back, ultimately winning 4-2. The question isn't whether Venezuela will be able to hit with the U.S.; the question is how much pitching do they have left?
The way that the schedule shaped up, Team USA's semifinal was on Sunday night, while Venezuela beat Italy on Monday night. The Venezuelan pitchers will only have one day of rest before the tough matchup. The United States' bullpen has been on fire in the tournament, and that is another aspect of the matchup that favors the United States.
Also, with the quick turnaround, will Salvador Perez be able to play in the championship? He had been alternating games for Venezuela and played in the semifinals. The 35-year-old catcher could be the DH, but it will be worth watching the lineup decisions for the finale.
Team USA needs to play consistently through the game, but looking at the matchup, the U.S. should win the game, although it will likely be closer than people may expect. Also, after winning a coin toss, the U.S. will be the home team for the matchup.
MORE: Explaining the blown call that helped Team USA reach the WBC title game
USA vs. Venezuela final score prediction
USA 5, Venezuela 3.
Team USA projects to have the edge on the mound. Venezuela is on short rest, and it would need to have an unexpected outing from the starter to give them the edge over the course of the game. McLean struggled in his lone WBC start so far, but he should settle back down. Still, Venezuela should be able to tag him for at least a run, and the bullpen is due to give up some runs. Even so, the Team USA lineup should be able to score more than the pitching staff allows.
This game could come down to the fact that the United States has had one extra day of rest compared to Venezuela. Reports over who will be available in the Team USA bullpen keep changing, but they are expected to be more rested than Venezuela's arms. The United States won't be able to take its foot off the gas even if it gets up early. Venezuela has notched back-to-back comeback wins over Japan and Italy, but that luck will run out in the championship as Team USA wins its second-ever WBC.
MORE: Inside Venezuela's run to the WBC title game